Bitcoin miners are facing a falling hashrate
Miners, meanwhile, have faced a particularly challenging environment. Network hash rates fell 4% in December, says VanEck — the sharpest decline since April 2024 — as high-capacity operations in regions such as Xinjiang reduced output amid regulatory pressures. Breakeven electricity costs for major mining rigs have also dropped, reflecting tighter profit margins.
Historically, however, VanEck notes that falling website hash rates can serve as a bullish contrarian indicator: periods of declining network power have often preceded positive 90- to 180-day forward returns.
The VanEck team frames its analysis within the GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity) framework, designed to assess Bitcoin’s structural health beyond daily price fluctuations.
Under this lens, improving liquidity and the accumulation by DATs provide a counterweight to softer on-chain metrics, including stagnating new addresses and declining transaction fees.
Broader macro trends add complexity to Bitcoin’s outlook. The U.S. dollar has weakened to near three-month lows, rallying precious metals, but Bitcoin and other copyright assets have remained under pressure.
In parallel, the evolving financial ecosystem may offer new support. Market observers point to the rise of “everything exchanges,” platforms aiming to integrate stocks, copyright, and prediction markets, leveraging AI-driven trading and settlement systems.
Just last week, copyright made an ‘everything exchange’ like move and launched an expansion of its platform, introducing stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other features. Companies entering this space — ranging from traditional brokerages to copyright-native firms — are vying for market share, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility over time, VanEck says.